According to Nassim Taleb’s theory, Black Swan events have three common characteristics:
1) A rare event that takes most observers by surprise.
2) Event has a far-reaching impact.
3) In hindsight, it at least seems the event could have been predicted.
236 years ago, there was no such place as the United States of America and the 56 brave souls who signed the treasonous Thomas Jefferson document we celebrate today didn’t change that. It took a war fought on the soil beneath our feet with women and children very much in harm’s way to convince the world that there was in fact a place called the United States of America. Only after the Black-Swanish outcome of that war would this country’s first President take office, almost thirteen years later. What we should celebrate today is the horrors endured by those who made that declaration a reality.
For most Americans today, war is something we do to others. The prospect of a war with Iran is Iran’s problem, me, I got dogs to grill. We smack around countries like a drunkard whaling on his kids, feared but not respected. The kids have all learned to know when it’s coming too because the M.O. never changes.
Since WWII aircraft carriers have been the crown jewels of the U.S. military. Their awesome presence silently announces that some rogue nation is in deep shit. It’s an extremely predictable ritual, not a strategy.
So the question is this:
When will a U.S. aircraft carrier be sunk again and by whom?
If your answer is never, you might be a redneck, but if you believe that the U.S. State Department had any choice at all in exempting China from the sanctions against Iran last week, you’re definitely a mainstream media propaganda-swallowing shithead, but I digress.
Less than two weeks seperate the last time an aircraft carrier was sunk in battle (Japan’s Amagi – July 24, 1945) and the first time nuclear weapons were used on humans (Hiroshima – August 6, 1945). I don’t believe that’s a coincidence. Since then “war” has become a grotesque blend of political theatre and big business extortion that still gets plenty of people killed and maimed, but in much more “gladiatorial” kind of way (which is still better than real war). In this not-so brave world aircraft carriers are invincible, so crack open another cold one before the fireworks.
You may need that slack-jawed look again the day you wake to find a U.S. aircraft carrier has been sunk. You’ll expect your TV to tell you an honest account of what happened and scream for politicians to do something, forgetting that the only thing congress knows how to do is shower other people’s money on their worthless cronies. So much for independence. If we’re lucky, this “Black Swan” will be nothing more than a false flag operation designed to further impoverish our children. If not, it will mean a sudden return to the kind of war whose outcome can’t be scripted.
Are we ready?
Declaring something doesn’t make it so. So please take a few moments to remember all the blood, sweat and tears (read shared sacrifice) it took to make that 236 year old declaration a reality this Independence Day.
Fun Fact: The USS Enterprise, currently deployed in the Persian Gulf, is scheduled to decommissioned March 15, 2013.