Mark McHugh

A Whole Flock of Black Swans?

In Open Thread on Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:39 am

Pleas note: click on the headline to see charts full size.

OK, so I’m not above misusing the buzzword-du-jour, that’s not important right now.  From January 1950 until September 28, 2008 the S & P 500 had moves of 5% or more (up or down) a total of 19 times.  That’s an average of one every three years.  For perspective, keep in mind that so-called great earthquakes (8.0 or higher) occur about once a year.

swan1Looks like a .wav file, eh?

Lately, there’s been a whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on.  What took over 58 years to happen once,  happened again in just 78 trading days.  That’s right, there were 19 days between September 29 and January 20 with 5% moves (that’s an average of one every 4.1 days).

Interesting times, indeed……(hope you’ve got good veins in your legs)


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