Mark McHugh

Archive for August, 2011|Monthly archive page

What A Long Strange Trip It’s Been…

In Open Thread on Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 8:51 pm

After some of very dramatic moves stocks ended last week pretty much where they started….which is pretty much where they were 13 years ago in 1998. 

 If you ignore inflation that’s a zero percent return (the BLS claims inflation was 38.5% 1998-2011).   To actually break even vs. inflation since 1998 the S & P 500 would have to be about 1630.

The average price of gold in August 1998 was $285.  Even adjusting for inflation, gold is up by more than 450%.  Silver was $5.18 in August 1998.

Any Questions?

The US National Debt was 5.5 Trillion in August 1998.  It has since increased by 9 Trillion (160%) since then.  That increase equals $29,000 per citizen.   The unemployment rate was 4.4% in 1998, its stated rate is 9.1% today (of course, anyone paying the slightest bit of attention knows it is much higher).

Was it worth it?

Funny story:  In 1999, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was projecting that the NATIONAL DEBT WOULD BE GONE BY 2012!!!!!

Along the way, somebody decided that NOT taxing the rich would be disatrous for the economy, so I guess this is their idea of “success.”   Maybe failure is the new success.

I see nothing that will change the patterns presented here.

Do you?

Really, Really, Really Bad Theatre

In Open Thread on Monday, August 8, 2011 at 12:41 am

Standard and Poor’s has downgraded US debt….and NOW the sky’s falling?

Seriously?

The US government isn’t creditworthy, and hasn’t been creditworthy for at least three years now.  I know it. You know it.  China knows it.  So why is this news?  I mean shouldn’t this be filed under, “No shit, Sherlock.”???

A: Yes, yes it should. 

Do you understand that S & P’s parent company is McGraw-Hill, the largest publisher of educational material in the US?  Now ask yourself this: Why would they bite the hand that feeds them?

A: They wouldn’t.  Not in a million, billion fricking years.  There is only one reason S & P would downgrade US debt….They were told to do so.

What you are witnessing is a bull massacre, not a bear raid.  Think about it, everytime congress bends America over for Wall Street the market rallies to confirm the “wisdom” of our elected officials.  You could bank on it……..until now.

Every momo in the world was betting on a stock rally when the debt limit was raised.  Options and futures activities confirm this.  So Wall Street was going to have to pay out on some very large bets if stocks rallied as expected.  Crooked casinos aren’t designed to pay out, so stocks started moving down, somewhat slowly.  Instead of taking the hint, more momos went long.

This wasn’t supposed to happen.  They actually thought they debt ceiling drama would draw shorts for them to steal from.  No such luck.

The Fed-induced stock bubble is the closest thing Obama has to an achievement.  He needs to preserve it and the only way to do that is to feed Wall Street victims (meaning bears).  Thus all the chicken-little crap you’re seeing unfold.

I’m telling you again, the “set-up” for a market collapse isn’t there.

Too many people are betting on black, so red’s gonna come up until people start betting red…..

You sure you wanna bet on red?